Kwankwaso, Shekarau and Ganduje
The battle for Kano State Government House is likely to renew the war of attrition between Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso and his one-time successor, Ibrahim Shekarau, writes JOHN ALECHENU
Kano State with approximately 5.1 million voters, according to an estimate by the Independent National Electoral Commission in 2011, is certainly one of the states to watch as Nigerians head to the polls on March 28.
For the avoidance of doubt, the state ranks among the leading states in the collection of Permanent Voter Cards. As of the last count, statistics released by INEC indicated that 86.63 per cent of eligible voters in the ancient city state have collected their voter cards.
With each passing day, it is becoming obvious that the battle to occupy Kano State Government House, will be a straight fight between the candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress, who is also the incumbent deputy governor, Dr. Umar Ganduje, and his main challenger, Sagir Takai, of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party.
On the surface, the race is between the two. But those knowledgeable about the intrigues that characterise the politics of the once thriving northern commercial hub argue that the issue is much deeper. They contend that beneath the surface, the real battle is between the incumbent governor, Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso, and his one-time political nemesis and current Minister of Education, Ibrahim Shekarau.
The two are no strangers to the battle of wits in the political arena as they have gone head-to-head on more than one occasion in the past. It will be recalled that Shekarau, who some say resigned from the civil service because he was hounded by the then governor Kwankwaso, joined politics a few months later to defeat his former boss in 2003. Since then, there has been no love lost between the two. An attempt by the opposition APC to make them see eye to eye failed as Shekarau, who was one of the founding fathers of the APC, left the party in anger. Shekarau could not come to terms with the thought of sitting at the same table with Kwankwaso. He considers the latter as someone who came to reap where he did not sow because he (Kwankwaso) was handed the party structure as part of a deal between the leadership of the APC and the five PDP governors who defected.
Although Kwankwaso is seeking to represent Kano State in the Senate, he is equally interested in ensuring that his current deputy, long time friend and political confidant, Ganduje, succeeds him. In order to prove that he is on the ground and in charge, Kwankwaso assured the APC presidential candidate, Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), that he will deliver Kano 100 per cent.
Shekarau on the other hand, has the twin objective of ensuring that his protégé, Takai, defeats Kwankwaso’s candidate and that President Goodluck Jonathan makes an impressive showing in the presidential elections.
As it is often the case in developing countries – Nigeria inclusive, incumbency is a factor which cannot be wished away each time there is an election in which an incumbent is a contestant.
Ganduje will certainly count on this factor to weigh in his favour. His case is unique in the sense that very few deputy governors get the support of their principals to step into the saddle. He served as deputy governor to Kwankwaso when the latter first served as governor (1999- 2003) and again in 2011, when they were both re-elected for a second term. Their relationship remained intact even when Shekarau kicked Kwankwaso out in 2003. Ganduje served as Political Adviser to Kwankwaso when the then President Olusegun Obasanjo appointed him as Minister of Defence.
As a leading member of the “Kwankwasiya” political group, which Kwankwaso heads, Ganduje is likely not to have any problem inheriting the political structure he partook in building. His supporters also note that the deputy governor’s experience in public service as well as his being a team player, will count in his favour. They hinge their confidence on what they say is Kwankwaso’s desire to reward loyalty and build upon his legacies. They also argue that Kwankwaso will be interested in handing over to someone he believes will complete several projects he initiated. What may also work in his favour, according to those in this school of thought, is the fact that the APC was largely able to manage the fallout of its primaries. Ganduje defeated his closest rival, Gen. Lawal Isa (retd.) after two other aspirants stepped down for him.
In a recent interview, Ganduje said he understands the enormity of the task ahead and would be in the best position to deal with issues as they come.
He said, “We have started so many projects; it is a matter of planning. There are some projects we know cannot be completed within the tenure of this administration and that is quite understandable because there is continuity in government. We believe that we are working very hard, so we have high hopes that it would be a member of this government that would win the election and continue.”
Opponents, however, cite Ganduje’s age as a possible minus. The APC candidate is 66. The choice of Prof. Hafiz Abubakar as Ganduje’s running mate is another issue which irked members of the three legacy parties that came together to form the APC. They felt alienated because both Ganduje and Abubakar are Kwankwaso’s political godsons. To the party’s credit, however, not much has been heard about the issue since the primaries ended.
In the case of the PDP, its candidate, Takai, is by no means a pushover. He has been an active player in the political firmament of the state since the return of democratic governance in1999.
As a member of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party, he contested for and won the chairmanship contest in Takai Local Government Council. This was at a time the PDP took virtually every available seat in council elections across the state.
He served as commissioner for local government administration in the Shekarau-led administration and became a prominent figure. Little wonder he was among members of the legacy parties who dumped the APC in Kano to join the PDP.
It is also expected that with the support of the Federal Government, he could pull a surprise which could return Kano State to the PDP. However, unlike the APC, the state chapter of the PDP is still enmeshed in a crisis of confidence over its handling of its primaries. Several of the party loyalists are still embittered about the conduct of the exercise which they argue fell short of their expectations. One of the aggrieved aspirants, Akilu Indabawa, went to court to challenge the process. Although the courts ruled in Takai’s favour, and the party leadership has since upheld his emergence as candidate, aggrieved members may still spring a surprise.
There is also the yet-to-be-resolved dispute over the status of Mohammed Abacha, the son of the late maximum ruler, General Sani Abacha. The younger Abacha boycotted the party’s primaries citing lack of transparency. He and Indabawa were quoted as saying Takai was imposed on the state chapter of the party by Shekarau and a few elements from Wadata House.
Some members of the party have defected to the APC in protest with many more threatening to do the same unless they get justice.
Takai’s choice of Abba, the son of the late Head of State, General Murtala Mohammed, was considered a deft move to assuage the feelings of some of those who were aggrieved. Abba was one of those who contested against Takai for the PDP governorship ticket.
The PDP candidate appears unperturbed about the ongoing permutations in the polity. He told journalists in Kano, “I am optimistic that by the grace of God, I will win. Just like while they were in government in 1999, we were outside and we came in 2003 and we won. And it happened that in 2011 we were with Shekarau and for whatever reason, they came into government. So, there are a lot of chances for us to win.”
Before the 2015 governorship polls slated for February 28, Kwankwaso and Shekarau, as well as their supporters, like the rest of Nigerians, will have the privilege of testing the acceptability of the parties’ candidates in the presidential and National Assembly elections on February14.
The Buhari persona is one that can move political mountains in Kano where he enjoys a cult-like following. He garnered the majority of votes in Kano in 2011 when he contested for the presidency on the platform of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change.
Shekarau and his counterpart, Ambassador Aminu Wali, who is Nigeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, are expected to lead the charge to galvanise support for President Jonathan this time around
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