Two weeks to poll: Jonathan still in a tinder-box

Despite a six-week window for more covert and overt campaigns, the nation’s presidential race is still getting tighter by the day with much anxiety. Caught in the midst of the campaign web is President Goodluck Jonathan, who is running from pillar to post. In this piece, YUSUF ALLI, MANAGING EDITOR, NORTHERN OPERATION examines how Jonathan got into a tinder-box

Barring last-minute hitches like “curious court injunctions”, the presidential election would have been lost and won in two weeks time. The battle has remained the fiercest, the keenest, the dirtiest and the most expensive for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and its arch-rival, the All progressives Congress (APC). In the last three weeks, the candidate of the PDP, President Goodluck Jonathan had traversed the country in a sleepless manner for the third round of a nationwide campaign because the incumbency factor (a rigging device for democracy in Africa) is not adding up. From the increasing grey hair of the President to the mudslinging on television against APC candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari and key opposition figures, Jonathan has been tripping by winning some and losing some. The question is: How did Jonathan run into a tinderbox?

Uncoordinated presidential campaign

Until the President took his destiny in his own hands, his campaign had been cosmetic because there was no synergy between the PDP and his Presidential Campaign Council. At a point, the Campaign Council refused to pay the advertisement bills of the party even when such adverts were for the President’s campaign. While some members of the council had been looking for crumbs to survive, others had remained mere passengers. Today, the President’s campaign is split into five namely: the President’s personal coordination; Ahmadu Ali led Presidential Campaign Council but remotely managed by the Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the party, Chief Tony Anenih; PDP Governors Forum; the PDP initiative; and the strategic team being driven by the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Anyim Pius Anyim/ ministers/ Chief E.K. Clark/ and other motley support groups.  A source said: “The struggle for personal benefits has overshadowed the target of winning the election. Virtually everyone wants to make money from the campaign as if there will be no tomorrow or as if we are going to lose at the poll. The President saw the gaps and decided to personally drive his own campaign.

“If the President tells you his experience in the last three weeks that he had been shuttling about, you will appreciate that he would have lost the February 14 election woefully.”

Another source said: “The challenge we are having is that the Campaign Council is too big for nothing, only few are working. To compound the problem, the PDP also raised a parallel campaign structure leading to overlapping duties and lack of results. Look, the six-week poll postponement is certainly a saving grace for the PDP.” The Deputy Director-General of PDP Campaign Organization, Prof. Tunde Adeniran on Thursday accused the party of doing little to promote Jonathan. He said: “If we continue to show this man has not done anything, others will capitalize on it. The party is not showing enough in this regard. The president’s achievement is undersold and in some cases not sold at all. In some places they ask, so Jonathan has done so and so?”

How effective are Jonathan’s self-help shuttles?

In the last few weeks, the President had embarked on shuttles to churches and traditional rulers to repackage his campaign and re-sell himself to Nigerians. Since the three birds (doves) refused to fly at the sanctuary of Rev. Fr. Mbaka in Enugu, the President had attempted to prove the Catholic Priest wrong that there is salvation elsewhere. But the mission to churches backfired with alleged N7billion bribe gift to the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN). Unlike in 2011, religious sentiments do not seem to favour Jonathan this time around. Instead, the church shuttles have left the nation polarized.

The failure of the mission trip made Jonathan to evolve a new strategy of consulting with traditional rulers in all the six geopolitical zones. He, however, did not take cognizance of history that most of the same traditional rulers who wined and dined with the late Chief MKO Abiola during the Hope 93 Presidential Race and assisted to annul his mandate were always at the Presidential Villa during the regime of the late Head of State, Gen. Sani Abacha to even watch films on flimsy state matters. The all-weather behaviour of some of the traditional rulers has made them to lose touch with their subjects. They prefer to smile to banks with the highest bidder and still have their cake and eat it. The few conscientious ones did not waste time in telling Jonathan the truth, home truth.  The Awujale of Ijebuland, Oba Sikiru Adetona (who spoke truth to power when Abacha regime was at its draconian best) reminded Jonathan of the helplessness of the royal fathers.

He said: “In Ijebu here, it is not possible for any Oba- not even in Ijebu, in Yorubaland- to go out and say vote for this, vote for that. That person is looking for trouble. But they should give them (the politicians) the opportunity to present their programmes so that the people can make up their minds on what to do.” There could have been no better home truths than the incorruptible Awujale’s submission. Again, each time takes a political step, he falters with a higher cost. Now he is being branded as serving God and Mammon for what he thought he had a clear cut intention. Jonathan has however shored up the image of many unknown or attention-seeking priests.

Is the First Lady spoiling the broth with Fayose and Fani-Kayode?

Naturally, the First Lady, Dame Patience Jonathan is expected to be beside her hubby, President Jonathan, not only as a dutiful wife but as the first beneficiary of power from re-election. Politically known as Madam P or Mother of the Nation, the First Lady formed the initially effervescent Women for Change Initiative to provide a back up for the President and PDP but when she was overwhelmed by the tightness of the race to the Presidential Villa, she threw decorum to the wind even when her husband has entered into a peace accord with other presidential candidates. On March 2 in Calabar, the First Lady minced no words when she said: “I’m telling you, anyone that comes and tell you Change, stone that person.  “What you did not do 19 Kirikiri, is now that age has caught up with you, you want to come and change? You can’t change rather you will turn back to a baby. You will turn back to a baby. From old age nothing, so nothing like change. Rather (it) is continuity.”  Though the First Lady was politicking, her office is too sensitive for such a blunder because it can ignite political violence.

To Japheth Omojuwa, a noted blogger with large following, the comments lowered the standard of the Office of the First Lady. He said:  “We need not look too far to find examples of First Ladies who brought class and elegance to the privileged office. They may have their own faults but few people will fault the elegance and class of the likes of Maryam Babangida and Stella Obasanjo. Looking to use Michelle Obama as an example of who Mrs. Patience Jonathan should emulate may be asking too much.

“But if the First Lady does not know what is right and what not to say, especially on national television, does she not have media managers? Are they paid to urge her and her classless disrespectful self on or they are paid to make her look better? Even if they have given up on her getting better, would it be out of place for them to suggest she never appears on live TV? They could at least edit the unwholesome parts of her speech from the whole speech. If per chance the whole speech is unwholesome, would it not be better to make the speech available without its sound? That is, if the First Lady must be on television at all.

“One saw that one or two men in the president’s campaign team said they saw nothing wrong in the Patience Jonathan statements. Now, it is one thing to want to earn a living, it is another thing to live life as though living beneath one’s belief is a way to earn a living. Or would anyone say stoning those who don’t agree with them tallies with the belief system of any civilized person for that matter? Haba! Should we begin to accord honorary titles to cows just because we are desperate to feed off their meat? Let us call a spade what it is, Madam Patience Jonathan is a disgrace to Nigerian women. Our women have certainly got more class.”

Whether Omojuwa is right or not will be tested at the International Criminal Court where the Director-General of the APC Presidential Campaign Organization, Governor Rotimi Amaechi has lodged a formal complaint. With the conviction of ex-First Lady of Cote d’Ivoire, Simone Gbagbo, the case against Mrs. Patience Jonathan might be one of the post-election legal tussles which Nigeria’s First Lady will face. In his letter Amaechi said: “Change, as the entire country must know by now, is the slogan of the APC – the rallying cry of a political party that wishes to bring hope of greater and better things to come for Nigeria and Nigerians. By her statement, Mrs. Jonathan was clearly calling on PDP supporters in Calabar to attack supporters and campaigners of the APC in the state,” Amaechi said.

“Mrs. Jonathan’s statements and conduct during the ongoing political campaign brings to mind the conduct of Mrs. Simone Gbagbo, wife of the former president of Cote d’Ivoire, Laurent Gbagbo, prior to that country’s 2010 election. The ICC indicted Mrs. Gbagbo for her part in planning to perpetrate brutal attacks, including murder, rape, and sexual violence, on her husband’s political opponents in the wake of the 2010 election.

“Mrs. Jonathan does not occupy any formal office in the Nigerian government, as the position of First Lady is not recognized by the Nigerian constitution. But Mrs. Gbagbo’s case shows the ICC’s awareness of how someone beyond formal governmental and military hierarchies can be identified as responsible for serious international crimes.”

The Director of Media and Publicity of the PDP Presidential Campaign Council, Mr. Femi Fani-Kayode however described the ICC threat as an “empty and boastful ranting.” He said: “We read with amusement, the threat by the Buhari campaign organization to drag the First Lady, Dame Patience Jonathan, before the International Criminal Court of Justice (ICC), for allegedly indulging in what they described as “hate speech” at a recent rally in River State. Their threat to take the First lady before the ICC is not only absurd, but it is also nothing but the empty and boastful ranting of a perfidious, desperate, decaying and dying political party and such threat will amount to nothing. The truth is that if anybody is a candidate for the ICC, it is certainly not Dame Patience Jonathan, but rather General Muhammadu Buhari himself.” Instead of being combative, a solemn First Lady, who spoke through her Media Adviser, Ayo Adewuyi said:  “The only thing we can say from here is that Dame Patience Jonathan is a woman of peace that can never in any way be identified with violence before, during and after elections. You do not expect somebody who is the President of African First Ladies to be promoting violence.”

The political losses incurred for Jonathan by the First Lady are dwindling goodwill from Nigerians, including die-hard PDP members and supporters; signs of desperation for power; international odium as the clips have gone viral on the Internet; and swaying votes from the ruling party to the opposition. It requires a lot of image laundering to repair the costly damage.

Contrary to the permutations of those who drafted Fani-Kayode, a former Minister of Aviation to Jonathan’s campaign council  and Governor Ayo Fayose’s self-imposed attack dog,  the propaganda role of the PDP Presidential Campaign may be short-lived because Yoruba, who are the immediate constituents of these ‘butchers’, are Republicans who can easily decipher the truth from falsehood. Yoruba cannot easily be led by the nose. And for Fayose, whose state cannot even deliver up to 500,000 votes for Jonathan, he cries more than the bereaved.

Jonathan, Muazu and the fresh fear of losing the north

For three days during the week, Vice-President Namadi Sambo and his wife were stuck in the North trying to woo Northerners all over for PDP. The few gains in the North had been eroded by the First Lady’s campaign remarks against the APC Presidential candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari and Northerners. Besides describing Buhari as “brain dead”, she accused the North of not having a good family planning system which has led to the emergence of street kids (Almajiri). First Lady Dame Patience said: Wetin him dey find again? Him dey drag with him pikin mate…Old man wey no get brain, him brain don die pata pata. Our people no dey born shildren wey dem no dey fit count. Our men no dey born shildren throway for street. We no dey like the people for that side.” According to findings, reports indicated much anger, even from PDP members, against the First Lady to the extent that the wife of the Vice President, Hajiya Amina Sambo is now the one coordinating the last leg of mobilization of women in the North. For a region addicted to its culture, Northerners don’t take kindly to derogatory comments on polygamy and insults against those who enjoy cult followership like Buhari.

This was why the National Chairman of PDP, Alhaji Adamu Muazu threatened to resign if the First Lady and others behind hate politics were unchecked by the President. Although the National Publicity of PDP, Chief Olisa Metuh, dismissed the resignation rumour, a member of the National Working Committee, who spoke in confidence, said: “It was true that Mu’azu protested against the use of uncouth language by the First Lady and some members of the PDP Presidential Campaign Organization because the North is sensitive to uncomplimentary remarks. And you know, we cannot joke with the North’s voting strength.”

Rather than taking a cue from Muazu, some PDP leaders had been attacking him in the last few days. According to findings, the presidency had been suspicious of Mu’azu for allegedly nursing a secret presidential or vice-presidential ambition. They therefore felt Mu’azu’s threat to quit was a consequence of frustration for not realizing his ambition. They pointed to Mu’azu’s remarks at the inauguration of the Presidential Campaign Council to justify what foretold the resignation plan. Mu’azu had said: “Mr. President, I want to appeal to you to consider it a challenge to discuss with your governors, Senators and all elected officials of PDP that members of our party shouldn’t be used and dumped. Adhere to equity, fairness and justice.” The bashing of Mu’azu had been on in the last three days. The Concerned Elders and chieftains of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Bauchi State accused Mu’azu, of not doing enough to ensure the re-election of President Jonathan.  In a statement in Bauchi by a PDP chieftain in the state, Bibi Dogo, they warned Jonathan not to rely on Mu’azu to deliver the mandatory 25 per cent to him in the forthcoming elections. The statement said: “There is also nothing concrete on ground to show Mu’azu’s personal commitment to the Jonathan’s re-election efforts. Attending presidential campaign rallies organized by PDP Presidential Campaign Organization is not enough commitment from the national chairman of the party.

“In fact, to govern a state for eight years under the same party is not enough for Mu’azu to deliver Bauchi to Jonathan 100 per cent, if actually Mu’azu is in control of the party in his state.”

Whatever becomes of the party chairman’s drama on the chances of Jonathan, it is a self-inflicted problem by the President. In keeping faith with his friend, Jonathan took the risk to make Mu’azu the National Chairman of PDP despite opposition. Many Nigerians may not know that one of the main reasons for the removal of a former Chairman of EFCC, Mrs. Farida Waziri was because of her insistence to prosecute Mu’azu against legal and ‘presidential’ advice.

Resurfacing fuel queues and epileptic power supply

No matter how temporary the fuel shortage was nationwide in the last one and a half weeks, it created another electoral hurdle for the President because many Nigerians are having a rethink on whether or not to cast their votes for him since there might not be change in the oil sector. It was as if those in charge of payment to marketers have a hidden agenda to draw back the hands of the campaign clock for Jonathan. The fears of Nigerians that the shoddiness in the oil sector might remain were heightened by the alleged secret memo from the presidency directing some ex-Niger Delta militant leaders to take over Nigerian waterways and oil pipeline protection from Police and the Nigerian Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC). The ex-militants implicated in the new ‘deal’ are Government Tompolo; the NDPVF, Mujaheedin Asari Dokubo; and Gen. Shoot-At-Sight. Although the takeover was said to be with effect from March 16, it was not immediately clear if the three key leaders got the “new deal” on behalf of all former militants. According to a source yesterday, the militants operating under seven groups had been allocated ‘regions’ or operational areas as follows:

1. Egbe Security River One (Bayelsa);  2. Gallery Security (Mosinmi -Ore) 3. Close Body Protection (Edo State);  4. Adex Energy Security(Rivers) ; 5. Donyx Global Concept(Lagos and Ogun);  6. Oil Facilities Surveillance-(Delta) and 7. NewAge Global Security (Mosinmi-Ibadan). The NNPC through its General Manager, Public Affairs Division, Mr. Ohi Alegbe, described the deal as a “community engagement programme” but it was evident that “it is job for the boys” for political purpose. This is why foreign oil firms are skeptical of new investments in oil prospecting in the country.

While Nigerians were recovering from fuel crisis, the power situation has become epileptic nationwide in the thick of rising heat. The electricity market which has 5,500MW installed capacity now generates average of 3,575.85MW following paucity of gas. Yet, the same Nigerians going through the anguish are expected to vote for “continuity.”

 Poll postponement, international reaction,  Jega’s fate and Mbeki’s visit

Up till now, the President and the PDP have not recovered from the backlash of poll postponement. Notwithstanding the repeated assurances of the Federal Government that there will not be a further poll shift, many Nigerians and foreign missions have been asking the media: Do you think this general election will hold? The element of trust is lacking due to alleged plot to remove the Chairman of INEC, Prof. Attahiru Jega and the unending debate over the use of Card Readers, which is a prerogative of INEC.  An example on Wednesday in Washington DC, USA, further lent credence to the fact that the poll postponement remains an international challenge for the Jonathan government.  At a briefing,  the Director-General of the National Intelligence Agency, Amb. Ayodele Oke and the Director of Defence Intelligence, Rear-Admiral Gabriel E. Okoi, took time to explain that the nation had overcome most of the security and logistic problems which led to poll shift. Oke said: “INEC was having challenges with regards to the distribution of permanent voter cards (PVCs)”. Okoi also explained how Boko Haram insurgency in some parts of the North-East caused INEC to postpone the poll in line with the 1999 Constitution. He said: “Consequently INEC, after robust consultation with key stakeholders, deferred the elections by six weeks in accordance with constitutional provisions”.  The session however became charged when Oke said: “When the election was postponed, the NDI and IRI who are both on the ground issued a joint statement which corroborated and gave fuller explanation as to the reason why INEC took the decision it took.”

The representatives of the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI) at the session said neither the US nor any US-based organizations was complicit in poll shift. A former US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Ambassador George Moose, who led an eight-man joint pre-election assessment mission to Nigeria in January said: “nothing in the statement justified postponement.”

Earlier, the US and the UK had expressed disappointment over the poll shift. The US Secretary of State, John Kerry said: “The US is deeply disappointed by the decision to postpone Nigeria’s presidential election, which had been scheduled for February 14.

“Political interference with INEC is unacceptable, and it is critical that the government not use security concerns as a pretext for impeding the democratic process.

“The international community will be watching closely as the Nigerian government prepares for elections on the newly scheduled dates. The US underscores the importance of ensuring that there are no further delays.

“We support a free, transparent, and credible electoral process in Nigeria and renew our calls on all candidates, their supporters, and Nigerian citizens to maintain calm and reject election-related violence.”

On its part, the UK said: “The decision by INEC to postpone the presidential elections is a cause for concern. The Nigerian people have the right to credible, peaceful and transparent elections. There should be no further delay in delivering democracy and we urge all to remain calm during this period of frustration.

“While we support Nigeria in its struggle against terrorism, the security situation should not be used as a reason to deny the Nigerian people from exercising their democratic rights. It is vital that the elections are kept on track and held as soon as possible in accordance with international norms.”

The increasing doubt over the poll made ex-President of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki, likely at the instance of the UN, to spend almost a week in Nigeria meeting Jonathan, APC candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari and others alike. A source said: “Mbeki’s visit had to do with the anxiety in and out of the continent over the general election. There are apprehensions on whether or not the poll will hold; the likelihood of violence and the acceptability of the results of the elections.

“So, the ex-South African President came to extract commitment from the key candidates that Nigeria will not be thrown into turmoil. He has been on a peace mission in order to ensure a free and fair poll in the country. He wants any loser to seek redress in court and not on the streets.”

Another source said the “recourse to hate politics was disturbing to African leaders and being a man of peace, Mbeki was saddled with the responsibility of intervening.

“You know Mbeki is playing a crucial role in mediation efforts in Darfur and Sudan as Chairperson of the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP).

“If you see what happened in Rwanda in 19994, no one will want either pre or post election violence in Nigeria.”

Dilly-dally over phone conversation with the King of Morocco

Of what use is an international telephone call with a foreign King or President to Jonathan’s campaign? Some officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had said the President had a telephone conversation with King Mohammed VI of Morocco. The spin was probably to project Jonathan as friendly with Muslim nations to score some political points. The faux pas led to the recall of Moroccan Ambassador to Nigeria. But the real intention was for the President to speak with the Moroccan King to seek support for the candidacy of the Minister of Agriculture, Dr. Akinwunmi Adesina as the President of African Development Bank (AfDB). Expectedly, the opposition has taken advantage of the costly slip. The ebullient National Publicity Secretary of APC,  Alh. Lai Mohammed said: “Because of this unnecessary controversy over a phone discussion, Nigerians have now been branded liars. This is very serious considering Nigeria’s standing in Africa.” The President has ordered investigation into the telephone debacle. If he sacrifices any of the Ministers in charge of Foreign Affairs, it will backfire politically. Either way, he has a moral dilemma to come clean and prove to Nigerian voters that he is a tidier leader.

Jega’s fate, PVC and card readers’ politics

In spite of the President telling the nation that he has no cause to remove INEC chairman, the signs are still ominous over the fate of Jega because of the umpire’s adamant position on the use of Smart Card Readers to authenticate Permanent Voter Cards   for the election. All attempts to portray INEC as a failure over the distribution of PVCs and deployment of Smart Card Readers have failed due to the overwhelming public confidence the electoral agency is enjoying. Nigerians have chosen to be blind to INEC’s lapses, they are just yearning to go to the poll. Jega has so far staved off pressure on PVC distribution with 55, 904, 272 (81.22 %) collected out of 68, 833, 476 cards produced. The battle has shifted to Card Readers with the government and forces in PDP unrelenting in manoeuvre against Jega.   The supervising Minister of Information, Edem Duke tested the public pulse about two weeks ago with abracadabra comments on Jega which caught many members of Federal Executive Council unawares.

He said: “On the issue of the INEC chairman, I align myself with what the President said that he has no plan to sack the INEC chairman. That is not to say that if it is time for the INEC chairman to naturally exit his office, then the natural course of things will not take place. It is like saying a civil servant has done 35 years or achieved the age of 60; we now begin to say that he must not retire or he must retire. I think all of that is in the terrain of the Presidency and he has spoken. I have nothing to add to that.”

The PDP chieftains have not hidden their disdain for Card Readers because they won’t be able to rig the general election or return jumbo figures as the case in some zones in 2011. Following Jega’s insistence on Card Readers, the ruling party and 15 others have opted for three options: blackmail Jega through mass protest to force presidency to have a rethink on Jega’s stay; go to court to stop the use of Card Readers; frustrate INEC chairman to resign. All these plots were hatched not minding the fact that the presidency had received legal advice that the Card Readers do not violate Section 52(1) (2) the Electoral Act 2010(as amended).

The mass protest which began at the INEC headquarters on Wednesday later spread to the South-East with the outlawed Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra(MASSOB) leading the anti-Jega march. There might be protest in Lagos on Monday too.

The biggest of the plot is recourse to the court to cage Jega who will have no choice than to obey the order of a court. A top source, who spoke in confidence, said: “There is a fresh plan by the PDP to scuttle the general election on March 28 by securing an order to restrain INEC from using Smart Card Readers.

“The initial plan was to use the registration of Young Democratic Party (YDP) to force INEC to start planning afresh following the new party’s claim that Justice Ahmed Mohammed of the Federal High Court had ordered that it should be included in the ballot papers.

“But the PDP and some forces in the presidency got a big shock when Justice Mohammed denied issuing such order and summoned YDP leaders for misinforming INEC and Nigerians.

“They have now resorted to Plan B by taking advantage of the suits on Card Readers to frustrate INEC and Jega.

“The main fear of PDP is that the use of Card Readers will not enable the party to rig and secure jumbo votes like the case in some geopolitical zones in 2011.

Another source said: “The PDP and 15 minor parties made the last botched move against Card Readers on Thursday when political parties met with Jega and INEC management.

“Jega stood his ground and the anti-Card Readers lobbyists left INEC headquarters in Abuja dejected.

“This is why they have seen the court matters as the last hope to call Jega’s bluff.”

A third source said:  “Some forces in PDP in Abuja are already bragging that the Federal High Court, Abuja will give a ruling on Monday to put paid to the use of Card Readers.

“They are celebrating as if the court had ruled in a case that they are not parties to.

“It is left to the Judiciary to save the nation’s democracy and avoid a repeat of June 12, 1993 general election when there were conflicting court orders.”

Justice Ademola Adeniyi is expected to determine the following prayers of the plaintiffs. They are:

o       Seeking an interim order restraining INEC from proceeding with arrangement and plan to use the CRM for the impending elections.

o       an order of interim injunction restraining the defendant, its agents, servants, privies or assigns, by whatever name, from implementing or commencing or further implementing or further commencing or directing or further directing the use and preparation of the Card Reader Machine or any name of like nature, pending the hearing and determination of the motion on notice.

o       Deployment of  card readers for the election is a violation of the provision of Section 52(1) (2) which prohibits the use of any electronic method of voting in the country.

Obasanjo, Babangida, Danjuma, Agwai  et al

The cold war between President Jonathan and ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo led to the tearing of PDP membership card by the latter. Obasanjo may be tagged a paper weight politician, he is respected by some Nigerians and the open derision of PDP might diminish the party before some voters. And the continuing haunting of any public officer associated with Obasanjo might prove politically fatal for Jonathan on March 28. The sack of the immediate past Chairman of SURE-P, Lt. Gen. Martin Luther Agwai for advocating change at Obasanjo’s 78th birthday lecture was not “too strategic” for a President seeking the votes of the people of Southern Kaduna which recently lost the coveted post of the Group Managing Director of NNPC. Even ex-President Ibrahim Babangida, whose political beacon is still Maradonic, came out openly in the week to back the use of Card Readers which the Presidency and the PDP are opposed to. Babangida in a statement said: “We must appreciate the creativity and innovation of the card reader which INEC has introduced to make for better election credibility and transparency.

“In a digital world where almost everything is driven by technology, the offer of the card reader is a welcome development. We may not get to the fullest merit of this, but it is a good way to start. This is one way to bridge the technological gap between those developed and under-developed nations of the world. Let us repose confidence in the system in the interest of the unity of our great country.” The icing on the cake was when Jonathan hosted the urbane former Minister of Defence, Gen. Theophilus Danjuma at the State House, the guest told newsmen that he was not around to campaign for any candidate. The recurring message is that most retired Army Generals are unhappy with the ill-treatment of Buhari.

Can hounding the opposition figures boost the chances of Jonathan?

The emergence of “curious” watch-list on Friday, purportedly sent to the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) by the presidency, has upped the ante. Though marked a fake list by the EFCC, there had been apprehensions in the land that Jonathan might play dirty because of the biting opposition. Some vexatious documentaries being run on some television stations have added proof to the do-or-die or desperate politics of the presidency and the PDP. These same politicians were in the vanguard of the fight for the actualization of Acting Presidency for Jonathan in 2010. According to findings, those on the “curious” list, alleged to be from the Chief of Staff to the President, Gen. J.O. Arogbofa, are key opposition figures in the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM).

They are ex-Vice-President Atiku Abubakar; Asiwaju Bola Tinubu; Speaker Aminu Tambuwal; Sen. Bukola Saraki; Governors Rotimi Amaechi, Adams Oshiomole, Aliyu Wammako, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Abdulfatah Ahmed,  and Sen. Danjuma Goje.

Others are the Governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress(APC) in Taraba State, Sen. Aisha Jummai Alhassan; the Governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Movement(PDM) in Adamawa State,  Dr. Ahmed Modibbo (ex-Executive Secretary of UBEC); and a former Minister of Education, Prof. Ruqayyatu Rufai, Executive Secretary, PPPRA, Farouk Ahmed; Deputy Governor for Operations of the CBN,  Suleiman Barau; Managing Director, NPA,  Habib Abdullahi; DG, NCAA, Capt. Mukhtar Usman; MD of NDIC, Umaru Ibahim;  GED, Business Development of NNPC, Attahiru Yusuf; and the GED, Commerce and Investment of NNPC, Aisha Abdulrahman.

If the watch-list is implemented, the political terrain will be rough for all and the election might not be free, transparent and fair.  Jonathan may succeed in destroying the opposition figures or hounding his political enemies into detention, he will however lose out in the long run. His place in the nation’s history might be difficult. Life with history can be lonely because all the so-called strategists, propagandists, friends of the President and blind loyalists would have vanished into thin air.

What next for Jonathan?

The comportment of Jonathan’s presidency in the next two weeks will determine his mileage at the poll. Like the wise say, “Your attitude will determine your altitude.”